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王敬伊:9.25原油沥青暴跌原因解析,多单被套下周行情操作建议。

来源: 南方日报网络版     时间: 2019年05月20日 19:40:09
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(原)(标)(题)(:王)(敬)(伊)(:9.25原)(油)(沥)(青)(暴)(跌)(原)(因)(解)(析)(,多)(单)(被)(套)(下)(周)(行)(情)(操)(作)(建)(议)(。
前)(言)(:又)(到)(周)(末)(了)(,很)(多)(投)(资)(朋)(友)(都)(出)(去)(放)(松)(了)(,我)(相)(信)(很)(多)(在)(玩)(的)(时)(候)(并)(不)(是)(那)(么)(的)(尽)(兴)(,因)(为)(心)(里)(总)(是)(在)(惦)(记)(着)(某)(些)(事)(情)(,某)(人)(,也)(有)(人)(在)(研)(究)(下)(周)(的)(行)(情)(,一)(周)(过)(去)(了)(有)(人)(赚)(钱)(也)(有)(人)(套)(单)(,但)(是)(不)(管)(怎)(么)(样)(,毕)(竟)(是)(周)(末)(,我)(们)(还)(是)(要)(给)(自)(己)(、给)(家)(人)(、给)(朋)(友)(、给)(亲)(人)(放)(个)(假)(,小)(聚)(一)(下)(,聊)(聊)(生)(活)(,唠)(唠)(家)(常)(,这)(才)(是)(生)(活)(.
【王)(敬)(伊)(-现)(货)(原)(油)(沥)(青)(暴)(跌)(原)(因)(解)(析)(】
①市)(场)(预)(计)(OPEC不)(会)(达)(成)(冻)(产)(协)(议)(,油)(价)(大)(跌)(。
油)(价)(周)(五)(大)(跌)(4%,市)(场)(预)(计)(下)(周)(OPEC会)(议)(不)(会)(达)(成)(协)(议)(。有)(迹)(象)(显)(示)(,在)(下)(周)(主)(要)(产)(油)(国)(讨)(论)(冻)(产)(的)(会)(议)(举)(行)(前)(,沙)(特)(和)(伊)(朗)(未)(达)(成)(初)(步)(共)(识)(。布)(伦)(特)(原)(油)(期)(货)(重)(挫)(1.76美)(元)(,或)(3.7%,收)(报)(每)(桶)(45.89美)(元)(。本)(周)(,该)(合)(约)(上)(涨)(0.3%;美)(国)(原)(油)(期)(货)(急)(跌)(1.84美)(元)(,或)(4%,收)(报)(每)(桶)(44.48美)(元)(。
②钻)(井)(平)(台)(增)(加)(也)(施)(压)(油)(价)(。
油)(田)(服)(务)(提)(供)(商)(贝)(克)(休)(斯)(BakerHughes在)(周)(五)(公)(布)(报)(告)(称)(,截)(至)(周)(五)(当)(周)(美)(国)(国)(内)(的)(活)(跃)(原)(油)(钻)(探)(平)(台)(数)(量)(增)(加)(2座)(,至)(418座)(,这)(是)(其)(在)(过)(去)(13个)(星)(期)(时)(间)(里)(第)(12次)(增)(加)(。
③美)(联)(储)(加)(息)(预)(期)(增)(强)(
周)(五)(公)(布)(的)(美)(国)(经)(济)(数)(据)(表)(现)(不)(佳)(施)(压)(美)(元)(。具)(体)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,美)(国)(9月)(Markit制)(造)(业)(PMI初)(值)(51.4,预)(期)(52,前)(值)(52。该)(数)(据)(创)(6月)(以)(来)(新)(低)(,数)(据)(高)(于)(50则)(表)(明)(制)(造)(业)(状)(况)(改)(善)(。
王)(敬)(伊)(认)(为)(尽)(管)(美)(国)(9月)(制)(造)(业)(增)(速)(仍)(缓)(慢)(,但)(总)(体)(来)(看)(制)(造)(业)(呈)(回)(升)(趋)(势)(;制)(造)(商)(称)(就)(业)(和)(订)(单)(都)(有)(所)(改)(善)(,意)(味)(着)(美)(国)(经)(济)(面)(临)(阻)(力)(减)(少)(,美)(联)(储)(年)(底)(加)(息)(预)(期)(增)(强)(。
【王)(敬)(伊)(-OPEC冻)(产)(协)(议)(来)(袭)(,下)(周)(行)(情)(解)(析)(】
①OPEC冻)(产)(协)(议)(能)(否)(达)(成)(
北)(京)(时)(间)(9月)(26日)((周)(一)(),国)(际)(能)(源)(论)(坛)(将)(在)(阿)(尔)(及)(利)(亚)(首)(都)(阿)(尔)(及)(尔)(举)(行)(。由)(于)(OPEC成)(员)(国)(与)(俄)(罗)(斯)(将)(在)(论)(坛)(会)(议)(间)(隙)(进)(行)(非)(正)(式)(会)(谈)(,本)(次)(会)(议)(备)(受)(投)(资)(者)(关)(注)(。
此)(前)(,4月)(的)(冻)(产)(会)(议)(是)(因)(为)(伊)(朗)(和)(沙)(特)(的)(对)(决)(而)(最)(终)(失)(败)(的)(。然)(而)(,这)(两)(个)(死)(对)(头)(现)(在)(依)(然)(在)(死)(磕)(。北)(京)(时)(间)(9月)(23日)(晚)(间)(,沙)(特)(曾)(称)(若)(伊)(朗)(愿)(意)(限)(产)(至)(360万)(桶)(/日)(,则)(该)(国)(愿)(意)(减)(产)(。不)(过)(由)(于)(气)(候)(原)(因)(,沙)(特)(本)(就)(会)(在)(夏)(天)(过)(后)(减)(产)(。随)(后)(伊)(朗)(正)(式)(拒)(绝)(,并)(表)(示)(目)(标)(产)(量)(是)(475万)(/桶)(-500万)(桶)(/日)(。
同)(时)(,这)(次)(会)(议)(还)(多)(出)(了)(三)(只)(拦)(路)(虎)(:利)(比)(亚)(和)(尼)(日)(利)(亚)(。由)(于)(国)(内)(动)(荡)(,这)(两)(个)(国)(家)(的)(原)(油)(产)(量)(与)(出)(口)(量)(较)(历)(史)(峰)(值)(均)(大)(大)(减)(少)(。尼)(日)(利)(亚)(官)(方)(表)(示)(,阿)(尔)(及)(尔)(会)(议)(或)(将)(有)(助)(于)(原)(油)(价)(格)(反)(弹)(,但)(预)(计)(OPEC不)(太)(可)(能)(达)(成)(冻)(产)(协)(议)(。
②下)(周)(行)(情)(解)(析)(
当)(前)(市)(场)(过)(剩)(供)(应)(约)(为)(160万)(桶)(/日)(,即)(使)(OPEC就)(冻)(结)(石)(油)(产)(量)(问)(题)(达)(成)(协)(议)(,油)(价)(仍)(将)(维)(持)(在)(40-50美)(元)(/桶)(区)(间)(。但)(是)(,如)(果)(OPEC冻)(产)(计)(划)(再)(次)(落)(空)(,王)(敬)(伊)(预)(计)(油)(价)(难)(守)(40美)(元)(/桶)(,甚)(至)(将)(再)(次)(跌)(破)(30美)(元)(/桶)(。
此)(外)(,据)(美)(国)(油)(服)(贝)(克)(休)(斯)(公)(布)(的)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,截)(至)(9月)(23日)(当)(周)(,美)(国)(原)(油)(钻)(井)(平)(台)(数)(量)(再)(次)(增)(加)(2口)(,增)(至)(418口)(,刷)(新)(7个)(月)(高)(位)(,周)(内)(EIA公)(布)(数)(据)(显)(示)(,美)(国)(国)(内)(原)(油)(产)(量)(上)(周)(也)(增)(加)(1.9万)(桶)(/日)(,且)(已)(经)(连)(续)(数)(周)(增)(加)(。也)(是)(对)(后)(市)(行)(情)(的)(打)(压)(。
【王)(敬)(伊)(-原)(油)(沥)(青)(下)(周)(技)(术)(面)(及)(操)(作)(建)(议)(】
周)(五)(晚)(间)(冲)(高)(不)(破)(后)(,承)(压)(快)(速)(下)(跌)(,日)(线)(大)(阴)(线)(收)(线)(,阴)(包)(阳)(的)(形)(态)(,日)(线)(偏)(空)(。日)(图)(围)(绕)(285-315区)(间)(震)(荡)(。下)(周)(有)(继)(续)(回)(落)(的)(空)(间)(。技)(术)(指)(标)(上)(,布)(林)(带)(开)(口)(持)(平)(,五)(日)(均)(线)(与)(十)(日)(均)(线)(粘)(合)(运)(行)(。附)(图)(MACD于)(0轴)(粘)(合)(运)(行)(,绿)(色)(动)(能)(柱)(弱)(势)(运)(行)(,指)(标)(整)(体)(中)(性)(偏)(弱)(。
短)(线)(,小)(时)(和)(四)(小)(时)(,均)(偏)(空)(,但)(目)(前)(触)(及)(一)(定)(支)(撑)(位)(,稳)(健)(的)(可)(得)(下)(周)(一)(开)(盘)(,反)(弹)(后)(跟)(进)(空)(单)(为)(主)(的)(操)(作)(思)(路)(。布)(林)(带)(开)(口)(向)(下)(运)(行)(,均)(线)(交)(死)(叉)(运)(行)(。附)(图)(MACD于)(0轴)(上)(方)(交)(死)(叉)(开)(口)(向)(下)(运)(行)(,绿)(色)(动)(能)(柱)(放)(量)(,指)(标)(弱)(势)(。
【王)(敬)(伊)(-原)(油)(沥)(青)(多)(单)(被)(套)(怎)(么)(办)(】
原)(油)(沥)(青)(多)(单)(被)(套)(,就)(很)(不)(应)(该)(,周)(五)(我)(多)(次)(提)(醒)(,高)(位)(阻)(力)(位)(不)(破)(,就)(不)(能)(看)(多)(,上)(方)(上)(涨)(空)(间)(就)(不)(会)(很)(大)(。那)(么)(多)(单)(被)(套)(的)(,不)(论)(怎)(么)(样)(,建)(议)(下)(周)(开)(盘)(后)(,及)(时)(寻)(找)(合)(适)(位)(置)(小)(损)(离)(场)(。周)(三)(就)(是)(多)(哈)(冻)(产)(会)(议)(公)(布)(结)(果)(的)(时)(候)(,届)(在)(结)(果)(公)(布)(之)(前)(,个)(人)(建)(议)(,保)(持)(空)(仓)(等)(待)(结)(果)(。不)(得)(盲)(目)(猜)(测)(,进)(行)(所)(谓)(的)(提)(前)(布)(局)(。当)(天)(行)(情)(几)(秒)(钟)(波)(动)(上)(百)(点)(是)(可)(以)(预)(见)(的)(。所)(以)(,稳)(健)(的)(,一)(定)(保)(持)(空)(仓)(等)(待)(。
在)(周)(三)(公)(布)(结)(果)(之)(前)(,只)(要)(下)(方)(支)(撑)(位)(不)(破)(,行)(情)(依)(然)(会)(维)(持)(区)(间)(内)(震)(荡)(,所)(以)(,有)(多)(单)(被)(套)(的)(,风)(险)(率)(高)(的)(,可)(以)(在)(低)(位)(补)(仓)(多)(单)(,周)(三)(之)(前)(,在)(区)(间)(内)(,把)(所)(有)(单)(子)(保)(持)(保)(本)(或)(者)(获)(利)(离)(场)(。风)(险)(率)(低)(,套)(单)(点)(位)(高)(的)(,建)(议)(周)(一)(日)(内)(反)(弹)(即)(小)(损)(直)(接)(离)(场)(;风)(险)(率)(低)(,套)(单)(点)(位)(低)(的)(,反)(弹)(后)(保)(本)(及)(时)(离)(场)(。
市)(场)(上)(出)(现)(的)(只)(有)(两)(种)(声)(音)(,一)(种)(告)(诉)(你)(后)(市)(会)(跌)(;另)(一)(种)(是)(告)(诉)(你)(后)(市)(会)(涨)(。当)(然)(,我)(想)(没)(有)(哪)(个)(人)(会)(说)(横)(盘)(的)(。更)(没)(有)(哪)(天)(市)(场)(上)(会)(统)(一)(的)(看)(涨)(或)(者)(看)(跌)(。如)(果)(是)(那)(样)(的)(话)(,市)(场)(上)(就)(只)(会)(出)(现)(一)(种)(情)(况)(了)(,全)(部)(赚)(钱)(的)(或)(者)(全)(部)(亏)(损)(的)(,这)(样)(是)(不)(符)(合)(市)(场)(定)(律)(。因)(为)(近)(期)(亏)(损)(的)(投)(资)(者)(众)(多)(,王)(敬)(伊)(本)(着)(服)(务)(客)(户)(的)(原)(则)(重)(新)(组)(建)(的)(一)(个)(喊)(单)(体)(验)(群)((每)(天)(群)(内)(体)(验)(两)(单)(,对)(非)(实)(仓)(客)(户)(开)(放)(,并)(且)(无)(时)(间)(限)(制)(不)(会)(出)(现)(不)(开)(户)(就)(踢)(人)(的)(现)(象)(),希)(望)(可)(以)(给)(投)(资)(者)(最)(大)(的)(帮)(助)(,目)(前)(已)(经)(有)(百)(位)(投)(资)(者)(入)(群)(或)(到)(群)(内)(分)(析)(师)(指)(导)(,但)(是)(群)(规)(模)(有)(限)(,希)(望)(近)(期)(亏)(损)(严)(重)(的)(投)(资)(者)(及)(时)(咨)(询)(王)(敬)(伊)(获)(取)(进)(群)(方)(式)(,机)(不)(可)(失)(失)(不)(再)(来)(,招)(满)(即)(停)(。我)(能)(做)(的)(我)(已)(经)(尽)(最)(大)(努)(力)(做)(到)(了)(,但)(是)(如)(果)(你)(不)(来)(找)(我)(,我)(没)(有)(办)(法)(帮)(到)(你)(,只)(希)(望)(这)(篇)(文)(章)(可)(以)(对)(你)(有)(些)(许)(的)(帮)(助)(。人)(心)(就)(是)(最)(大)(的)(技)(术)(。真)(正)(影)(响)(你)(的)(不)(是)(价)(格)(,而)(是)(心)(中)(想)(象)(的)(东)(西)(太)(过)(于)(多)(。返)(回)(搜)(狐)(,查)(看)(更)(多)(责)(任)(编)(辑)(:
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